The phenomenon of Imran Khan and politics


In December 2020, I wrote; Imran Khan — the dying pangs of a dream

The cited Op-Ed was based on the performance of the then PTI government, its relative unease at handling the economy and the pitfalls of not being on the same page with the Military

Things unfolded as projected, except that IK now symbolises even more the dreams, hopes and aspirations of a cross-section of Pakistan

In subsequent articles, I argued that Khan combines charisma, Pakistaniyyat, Islamist credentials, spine to hold his ground/courage and relative integrity in comparison with others; hence he should be packaged correctly for greater good of this country, and its starry-eyed people

Given PTI’s inexperience/non-deliverance, IK was suggested to become Rahber-e-Tehreek rather than holding a public office ‘on return’

A series of steps were suggested to improve PTI’s governance, the next time around

The powers that be were advised to read the popular ‘pulse’ correctly, and avoid repeating the many missteps that started the curse of Ramadan-2022

That curse which has afflicted our body politic deeply and adversely continues to this day

As an optimist, one sees the brighter side of even the starkest adversity, as even evil has corrective, constructive and creative silver-lining

Our belief that all the good and the bad is from Him

IK was swept/guided to power under similar hopes after failure of the tested and tried cabal of corrupt dynasts

Midway through his maiden innings, these hopes seemed dashed

However, these stand resurrected like never before

Empirical evidence aside, IK the idol is seen as an underdog wronged under foreign pressure, with own people in cahoots

And that energises the mainstream Pakistan and a substantial number of fence-sitters

Irrespective of the hard realities, this narrative sells and sells well

Beyond this point, the short-term Pakistani politics is faced with the following key questions

Will IK/PTI sustain the momentum of their narrative till elections in 2023? Will his arrest and detention/disqualification lead to some sort of revolution? How would the ‘neutrals’ react ‘if and when’ there is a change of guards? And what will be the 2023, post-election dispensation? First, the sustenance of election-oriented popularity of PTI/IK through agitation

As I have repeatedly opined, IK is the first leader after ZA Bhutto who has mobilised masses, albeit with two variances

His movement comprises urban upper middle class also (Bhutto did not have this advantage); and he/PTI dexterously uses the power of social media (Bhutto did not have this advantage either)

So, if today is any guide, he shall be able to maintain his support base till elections next year

However, those in the know of Pakistan’s ‘one-event political culture’ would attest that there is many a slip between the cup and the lip

Who would have thought Asif Zardari becoming president if the ‘single event’ of Benazir’s death had not buoyed PPP’s political fortunes

So, fingers are always crossed in projecting Pakistan’s political direction

The list of variables that can/would cast their shadow over the course of politics is long…from governance quality by present dispensation to the economic revival/inflation control to flood relief/rehabilitation to power hardball by ‘other’ players – internal and external, etc

Second, what happens if he is arrested/disqualified and barred from politics? The public mood is strongly defiant, as has been seen by previous two attempts to nab him

The PDM-led government and Rana Sanaullah-engineered strategy would be to stem the pro-Imran tide using strong administrative actions, maligning IK/PTI through IT-based smear campaign, entangling him/PTI leadership in unending legal battles, and gaging the PTI’s narrative over state-controlled media

They would use the change of guards at GHQ to their advantage, actual and/or perceived

Would IK’s arrest lead to any semblance of a revolution? Revolutionary culture cites ‘misery’ as breeding the revolt

This misery is mostly economic misery that mobilises the dispossessed masses under a dynamic leader and an organised party

The public discontent is channelised carefully by revolutionaries to challenge the existing order

Pakistan/PTI does not qualify for revolution due to various reasons

Our Hindu legacy ascribes hardships to destiny/kismet, and never allows the balloon of discontent to burst

Two, Subcontinent never had a revolution, as demography is too diverse, divided and dispersed to become revolutionary material

Three, rulers in Islamabad do not matter for the vast majority of Pakistanis in rural heartland, especially in flood-ravaged areas

Four, social media following and rallies may be deceptive

Musharraf had millions of followers on Facebook

However, above considered and the fact that IK mobilises the citizenry like none else, especially Pakistan’s IT-savvy youth bulge…revolutionary seeds might be discreetly in ferment

And for every event, there has to be a first time

For a popular anti-status quo uprising, any misstep may be a tinderbox

However, the outcome would most likely be anarchy, rather than a guided revolution, for cited reasons

And the ensuing violence might propel the Military into action, as is always the case with Military interventions

Our low threshold of violence-absorption might again welcome the ‘criticised’ Military to restore the cherished law and order

And that outcome upends the political calendar like always

Third, crystal-balling the Military

One does not read too much into the recent trip of Gen Bajwa and his team to the US

This planned visit was twice rescheduled, and important Generals always accompany the Chief, when he is to interact with various US military forums

As announced by DG ISPR and based upon other indicators, Pakistan Army would have a new COAS this November

And 2023 elections would be under his capable and observant watch

And, he would be his own man, irrespective of the circumstances of his selection

Fourth, the post-2023 election dispensation

Considering the many ‘ifs and buts’ (and absence of any single-event trigger), PDM if able to turn the challenge of floods into opportunity, might steady the economy – possible

It may thus make a dent in PTI’s popularity and vote bank

Otherwise also, agitational politics outside the Parliament would be costly and tiring for PTI

In that likely scenario, IK may still win and form a coalition with a strong opposition

In the event of an earlier vote (that is not likely), IK/PTI may form a government without needing uneasy compromises with coalition partners

So, the political horizon has PTI written large…perhaps after lessons learnt

Let’s get back to work

Published in The Express Tribune, October 6th, 2022

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Date:07-Oct-2022 Reference:View Original Link