It is a miracle that Pakistan has so far escaped the worst of the coronavirus crisis
Perhaps this will remain true and even with a callously enforced lockdown and a broken healthcare system, we will not suffer the same fate as the United States and Europe
But as the coronavirus situation in the country worsens with every passing day, it is more probable that the worst is yet to come
In recent days, hopes for flattening the curve have evaporated as the rate of infections has risen exponentially
In that event, more unfortunate suffering and loss of life is assured
A continued and well-enforced lockdown over the next month, even with rising infections, may have staved off our most extreme fears
The experiences of other countries have shown that a lockdown, no matter how painful, coupled with expanded testing is the only way to halt the spread of the virus and minimise the damage it causes
Unfortunately, Pakistan has chosen to forego this route and Prime Minister Khan’s decision makes our impending reality look much grimmer
As ‘normal’ life is restored over the next few weeks, it is inevitable that the virus will spread much faster and wider and the consequences will be much worse, and much more long term
Perhaps the prime minister has accepted the reality that people will have to die if he is to save Pakistan’s economy and his own political career
What he and his advisors have perhaps not had the foresight to see is that his panacea may very well turn out to be disastrous for the economy and the cause of more acute suffering for the country’s poor
If the prime minister thinks that he can get away with ignoring the flood of rising infections and deaths that his quest to reopen will yield, he is sorely mistaken
When the coronavirus crisis gets worse, the pressure will inevitably build from all quarters for a response
A new lockdown will be ordered, either by the prime minister or by the establishment, and this one will be far longer and far more painful than the current one
At 25, 000 infections, it may very well take a month or two more to flatten the curve
At 250,000 infections, combined with our non-existent testing and poorly managed contact tracing, it might take half a year or longer
In that case, the present lockdown is just a teaser for what may come
Millions will find themselves jobless, savings will evaporate, businesses will collapse, and the economy will be in ruins
Long term travel restrictions to and from Pakistan will mean trade and remittances will come to a halt
Most importantly, those at the very bottom of the socioeconomic ladders of Pakistani society will suffer the most
This is the large segment of our population without a safety net and without any savings or assets to fall back on
Ultimately, this kind of economic ruin and suffering will mean more government spending and consequently, rising national debt
Healthcare, already grossly underfunded, will require major funding to care for even a fraction of the patients
The welfare net, currently woefully inadequate, will need to be expanded so it can cover just a small number of the rising dependents
And when the crisis is finally over, businesses will need loans to kick-start the economy
All this requires more money than the government has and will inevitably result in the kind of borrowing that will further push us into a vicious debt trap
Understandably, extending the lockdown at the present juncture would have been a difficult thing for the government to do
Done well, it requires not just enforcing an increasingly unpopular lockdown but also doubling efforts to care for the ever-increasing masses on the brink of poverty and hunger
This, the government has proven, is a job it is unfit to carry out
And so, the easy path was chosen
Unfortunately, by taking this easier path and reopening the country, the government may have condemned Pakistan and its most destitute to an even worse fate
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| Date: | 09-May-2020 | Reference: | View Original Link |
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