We have a parliamentary democracy, sort of
Of the five assemblies that constitute regular Pakistan, at least three are in place and for the other two — sixty-six per cent of Pakistan — there is an interim set-up authorised under the Constitution but with the sole purpose of conducting elections and returning the government to the mandated representatives
Except that the interim-guys are already having second thoughts, expanding their cabinets, making changes as if they are in it for the long haul, and doing so in total violation of the principle under which the governing structure is authorised
The federal government and those state institutions meant to work together to make the electoral exercise happen all seem in league to extend the interim governments to somehow avoid elections beyond the stipulated time in the constitution
Democracy and Constitution have been put on hold
If the status remains unresolved, the Constitution will turn irrelevant
That has the making of an anarchic, chaotic and a fractious society and state
We are being set-up to fail
The IMF will probably resume its programme in due course, but will that resolve Pakistan’s economic and financial predicaments? Our debt stock will still be in place
Our inflation will probably touch the fifty per cent mark under IMF prescription
Poverty will multiply and social unrest will ensue
We may not default, and we may still import some, but our factories will shut down and people will lose jobs
We may even restructure the debt with some of our donors, even take a debt holiday if they are generous and don’t ask for our flesh in return, but we will still need dollars to pay back, to import and to keep the economy, state, and the society functioning
These will need to be our own, earned and not borrowed, because no one will lend us more
We must earn dollars
That is the only prescription that will work to return borrowed loans
It is never okay to default because that will stop our fuel imports and food and medicine to live on
And we will go off the global economic grid as soon as we announce a default
IMF is thus a respite, not the solution
Balochistan and KP were never fully tamed and continue to extract the wages of our incompetence
There are saving graces that hold us in in relatively better stead, none more precious than how our valiant sons lay their lives in defending these territories, but TTP’s reemergence as a factor of concern — after it had been sufficiently neutralised — points to the fact that more needed to be done, but wasn’t
Or what was done was either not right or didn’t pan out as expected
This might push us into another round of operations to put the TTP back in its place
It must be neutralised effectively and fully with whatever it takes
Unfortunately, that isn’t how all political parties look at it
The PTI thinks appealing to TTP’s sense of fraternity and brotherhood can do the trick
Some others think, TTP is an existential danger which must be put out
This points to a division of focus and intent and germinates doubt in the purpose of expending precious effort in fighting what remains an unresolved quantity on the threat matrix
Pakistan knows the TTP well; what it needs is clear enunciation and an undiluted and uncompromised will to eliminate the menace
This will need collective resolve
Together these make for a perfect storm
The consequences at failing are horrendous
In each case our fallback source is the source of last resort
Financially we have tied hopes to the IMF and our bilateral donors who increasingly now ask for real flesh
In security terms we are vulnerable to how we may be pushed to seek external assistance at a cost
There is never a free lunch
Politically we are just too steeped in parochial and familial restraints to think beyond of the nation, its people or the state
Each wants to get to the mantle of power, if possible, without going through the test of a democratic process
Those who don’t have access to power and authority or have frittered it away in some dreamy-eyed venture seek it back one way or the other
Those who have it don’t want to part with it
With a constitution that looks on helplessly and the usual arbiters keeping off for fear of being tainted it really is a free-for-all
With no one in charge no one is in-charge
Hence, we float along in air, uncontrolled and unmanaged, not knowing which way we might fall
Meanwhile our family silver is in the danger of being bartered or worse, auctioned
We may be a step away still, but to shut out the possibility we shall have to rise above ourselves
It is that moment of reckoning
Assuming elections are not held in 90 days or thereabouts, or even in the entire year of 2023 on one pretext or the other as is being loudly propounded, we shall, of necessity, be in an era of unconstitutional existence
The current PML-N or PDM set-up would rather give prevalence to resolving the economic and security challenges before politics can revert to its legal or constitutional form
Which most obtrusively means we may escape martial law, but we will surely be under another extra-constitutional guise
The alternate is equally haunting to some
Elections might throw up the same choices which got us in this soup in the first place
Hybrid or not, their political and governing acumen was at its worst display in the last twenty years — I add five years of Musharraf too to appease sensitivities, though his was still a time of relative calm and a functioning economy
That it was with borrowed money is the bane that successive governments have failed to set right
And no political government has a shelf-life long enough to see profitable returns from a long gestation venture such as restructuring the economy
In essence the economy shall need to conform and cohabit to the relevance of global economic needs to earn us some precious dollars
Currently we are only fighting fire without long term policy adjustment
Cohabiting with the region may be the first step in that quest though it shall need a leadership free of the fear of loss of political capital and popular backlash which holds them back from bolder initiatives — restructuring, reforming and policy revision
A political dysfunction may then be just that moment when certain freedom of action may help get us the country and the economy back on rails with a decision-making apparatus capable of addressing today’s needs
We may just be entering such a period of improvised governance
(Part II will address how we may get there
) Published in The Express Tribune, February 17th, 2023
Like Opinion & Editorial on Facebook, follow @ETOpEd on Twitter to receive all updates on all our daily pieces
| Date: | 18-Feb-2023 | Reference: | View Original Link |
|---|